Feeling Lucky? Think About It
By Al O’Grady
As a dealer, I hear people’s emotional reactions all the time when they lose. Some are class individuals. They know basic strategy but for whatever reason, it just was not in the cards (pun intended). There are also those that are nothing more than immature little babies. They slam the table, they use the f-word as subjects, verbs, adjectives and adverbs, and slither away like a six-year-old needing a timeout. There are those who feel that the game is rigged even though they have not learned basic strategy. And then there’s my favorite, the ones who say how unlucky they are. Really?
The Meaning of Luck
So, what is your definition of luck? Personally, I find that to be a challenging question. I have issues with the dictionary definition. According to dictionary.com, luck is “The force that seems to operate for good or ill in a person’s life, as in shaping circumstances, events, or opportunities.” It does not say who or what is behind this force, how this force is measured and why does it affect only certain people.
This dictionary definition seems to be on the same playing field as the spiritual world, but I truly do not believe the celestial bodies care if you win or lose at blackjack. This definition really does not fit, so my search continues.
The second definition in dictionary.com hits closer to home. It defines luck as “good fortune; advantage or success, considered as the result of chance.” While this is more relevant to our discussion, I still have issues with it for the following reasons. What is your definition of good fortune? How do you define success? The terms are subjective and I need more clarity.
What About You?
Forget the dictionary definitions. How would you define luck? As a self-proclaimed math geek, I define luck this way: An intangible factor, impacting a short-term positive or negative deviation from long-term probability. If there is an 80 percent chance of something occurring, and you bet on it and you lose, is that unlucky? No. If there is an 80 percent chance of something happening, then you must accept the fact that there is a 20 percent chance of it not happening.
Now what if you bet on this twice in a row and lose twice in a row. Is that unlucky? The chance of that happening is four percent (20 percent times 20 percent). Highly improbable, but it can still happen. I do not know if I would call that unlucky, but rather highly unlikely. Now what if you bet on that 80 percent favorite and lost three times in a row. The chance of that happening is 0.8 percent (20 percent times 20 percent times 20 percent).
Some might call that unlucky and, from an irrational, emotional perspective, I might agree. But the logical side of me would still argue that there is a mathematical chance of that happening and, while remote, it is still a chance nonetheless.
The Human Factor
People tend to be irrational and disregard remote, mathematical chances as unlucky, especially when it happens to them. They have a sense of entitlement. They feel they are owed the winning bet. They know they are a heavy favorite; they know they should win, but for some unknown reason they did not. They can only explain it one way: It must be bad luck. The flaw in their logic is simply this. There are no guarantees in life except death and taxes. In the casino there are no sure things. As Murphy’s Law states, “Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.”
There is also something that is known as the self-fulfilling prophecy or the power of suggestion. The more you repeat something to yourself, whether it is true or not, the more it seems to manifest itself and ultimately reinforces that mindset. If you keep saying how unlucky you are, and you lose your splits and double downs, you will continue to feel that you are unlucky. But what if you were splitting and doubling down certain situations that went against basic strategy? Was that bad luck or was it bad play? You cannot blame bad luck on a poor decision.
The reverse is also true. If you keep repeating to yourself how lucky you are and you win all your splits and double downs, but you were playing perfect strategy, was that good luck or good play? People will have a certain mindset and will play accordingly. They let their subjectivity overrule their objectivity and blame or credit their subjectivity for the outcome.
The Power of Superstition
Some believe that walking under a ladder, breaking a mirror or a black cat walking in front of them will give them bad luck. They think that way, they believe that way and then act accordingly. They play defensively and do not take bold moves. They do not split or double down when they should and have substandard results after their session. Was it really the ladder, the cat or the mirror that created their misfortune … or was it their belief system preventing them from making winning plays? Said another way, correlation is not the same thing as causation.
There is also another saying that I like when it comes to luck. The harder I try, the luckier I get. These people put the emphasis on themselves and the effort they put into the matter at hand and not some existential force that generates the outcome. Whether it is blackjack or any other facet of life, if they train, learn, develop, plan and persist, positive things will usually happen. They did not leave it up to luck. They relied on themselves and their efforts.
This leads me to my final thought on luck and it is one that I subscribe to. Winners will credit their good luck when luck had nothing to do with it. Losers will blame their bad luck.
But just in case I am wrong, I sincerely wish you the best of luck at the tables and don’t forget to tip the dealer.
Good luck at the tables and do not forget to tip the dealer.
There are also a lot of roulette betting strategies as well as the various casino bonuses but they are for another edition of Casino Life Magazine.
*** This article was originally published in July 2025 Casino Life Magazine Issue 179 ***
